discorso di Nouriel Roubini a Davos nel 2006

...."And unfortunately, the lack of serious economic reforms in Italy implies that there is a growing risk that Italy may end up like Argentina. This is not a foregone conclusion but, if Italy does not reform, an exit from EMU within 5 years is not totally unlikely. Indeed, like Argentina, Italy faces a growing competitiveness loss given an increasingly overvalued currency and the risk of falling exports and growing current account deficit. The growth slowdown will make the public deficit and debt worse and potentially unsustainable over time. And if a devaluation cannot be used to reduce real wages, the real exchange rate overvaluation will be undone via a slow and painful process of wage and price deflation. But such deflation will keep real rates high and exacerbate the growth and fiscal crisis. Without necessary reforms, eventually this vicious circle of stagdeflation would force Italy to exit EMU, return to the Lira and default on its Euro debts. Some argue that Italy or other EMU laggards would not exit EMU because a sharp devaluation of the new Lira – needed to regain the lost competitiveness – would make the real value Euro debt much higher and unsustainable for the government, the private sector and households. But look at what happened to Argentina: it devalued and given the balance sheet effects of the depreciation on their US debts it was forced to pesify its dollar debts. Similarly, Italy would be forced to liralize its Euro debts. If Italy were to exit EMU this effective default on domestic and external – public and private – Euro debt obligation would become unavoidable. And a sovereign nation is able to follow such policies – EMU exit, return to national currency and effective default on Euro debt – regardless of any legal or formal constraints that the EMU treaty imposes in terms of no exit clauses. This is not science fiction as Argentina was forced to do the same. What would be the systemic effect of such Italian exit from EMU? They would be extremely severe on EU capital markets as Italy would default on some of its external debt – the part of its Euro debts held by non-residents. The contagion effects to other EU capital markets and banks would be severe. And the no bailout rule of the ECB would become effectively threatened as the ECB would be forced to monetize both liquidity and solvency induced runs to avoid a systemic effect on EU financial markets. In conclusion, my view is that EMU can work and has worked for the Eurozone countries that have reformed and are reforming. But, unless Italy and other Eurozone laggards change their policies to pursue serious economic reforms that restore competitiveness and growth, they will eventually be forced to exit EMU. This would be a disaster but a disaster that may become unavoidable unless policies change. And I am currently pessimistic about the chances that such changes may occur given the policy makers and policies currently in place in countries like Italy.” alla fine del discorso il presente ministro italiano dell'Economia Tremonti, esplose di rabbia e insultò Roubini, mandandolo a quel paese, ossia a Istanbul città natale dell'economista...... come possiamo constatare oggi, a distanza di 6 anni da quel discorso, l'Italia si sta incanalando proprio in quella infelice direzione, dato che non ha prodotto le riforme necessarie per rimanere con successo in area euro e cioè incrementare la propria produttività pertanto dopo un lento calo di stipendi e salari e prezzi deflazionati, aumento del debito e tassi alti insostenibili, l'Italia sarà costretta ad uscire e riprendersi la lira e liralizzare il suo debito pubblico con possibili conseguenze nefaste per i detentori stranieri dei nostri titoli di stato di cui si stanno liberando a colpi di 1,5 miliardi al giorno, passando finora da 900 a 600 miliardi detenuti da Francia e Germania e la vendita sta continuando con probabile data di sganciamento entro il 2013 o 2014 quando l'Italia verrà gentilmente invitata ad uscire se non avrà già provveduto con sua iniziativa unilaterale